the 2028 presidential election is more than 1,000 days away, but you’d hardly know it from all the speculation and anticipation that’s swirling from Sacramento to the Washington Beltway.

Standing at the center of attention is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, fresh off his big victory on Proposition 50, the backatcha ballot measure that gerrymandered the state’s congressional map to boost Democrats and offset a power grab by Texas Republicans.

Newsom is bidding for the White House and has been doing so for the better part of a year, though he won’t say so out loud.Is Newsom the democratic front-runner or a mere flash in the pan?

Times columnists Anita Chabria and Mark Z.Barabak disagree on Newsom’s presidential prospects, and more. Here the two hash out some of their differences.

Barabak: So is the presidential race over, Anita? Should I just spend the next few years backpacking and snowboarding in the Sierra and return in January 2029 to watch Newsom iterate, meet the moment and, with intentionality, be sworn in as our nation’s 48th president?

Chabria: You should definitely spend as much time in the Sierra as possible, but I have no idea if Newsom will be elected president in 2028 or not. That’s abou## Newsom’s Presidential Ambitions Are a Fleeting Fancy

By Mark Z. Barabak and George Skelton

SACRAMENTO – gavin Newsom is everywhere these days, or at least, he’s trying to be. A recent trip to Washington, D.C., filled with pointed jabs at Donald Trump. A nationally televised debate with Florida Gov. Ron desantis. A relentless social media presence.

It’s all part of an unmistakable,if unacknowledged,campaign for the presidency.

Newsom’s allies insist he’s focused on his job as governor of California, and that his broadsides against Republicans are simply defending democratic principles. But few believe it. The question isn’t *if* Newsom has presidential ambitions, but *whether* they’re realistic.

Right now, the polls suggest he’s a credible contender. A recent survey showed him running neck and neck with Trump in a hypothetical matchup. But as my colleague Jean Merl points out, early polling is often a mirage.

It’s easy to see why Newsom is trying to position himself as the leader of the anti-Trump resistance. He’s a charismatic and articulate politician with a knack for fundraising and a proven ability to win elections in a large and diverse state.

But California is also a deeply troubled place. The state struggles with crushing housing costs,persistent grocery and gas prices and our shameful rates of poverty and homelessness.Not a great look for Newsom, especially when affordability is all the political rage these days.

And while I understand the governor’s appeal – Fight! Fight! Fight! – I liken it to the fleeting fancy that, for a time, made attorney, convicted swindler and rhetorical battering ram Michael Avenatti seriously discussed as a Democratic presidential contender. At a certain point – and we’re still years away – people will assess the candidates with their head, not viscera.

As for the polling, ask Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart or Hillary Clinton how much those soundings matter at this exceedingly early stage of a presidential race. Well, you can’t ask Muskie, because the former Maine senator is dead. But all three were early front-runners who failed to win the Democratic nomination.

Chabria: I don’t argue the historical case against the Golden State, but I will argue that these are different days. People don’t vote with their heads. Fight me on that.

The Electability Factor in the 2028 Democratic primary

As the 2028 election cycle approaches, two key issues are emerging as critical for Democratic primary voters: affordability and electability. Electability – the perceived ability of a candidate to win the general election – is proving to be a major consideration alongside economic concerns.

The Affordability Crisis: Affordability will undoubtedly be a dominant theme,especially if consumer confidence continues its downward trend. Recent data indicates a meaningful drop in consumer sentiment, signaling growing economic anxieties among voters. Consumer confidence is nearing record lows, intensifying the pressure on candidates to offer viable solutions.

California’s Challenges: Candidates will inevitably face scrutiny regarding California’s issues. Criticisms, some justified, will focus on the state’s high cost of living and persistent social problems. Housing costs remain a significant burden, and homelessness continues to be a major challenge.

National Issues: Though, it’s crucial to recognize that these problems aren’t unique to California. They are widespread across the United States, demanding comprehensive solutions that extend beyond state-level interventions. Addressing these national issues requires a deeper, more systemic approach than fast fixes.

Key Takeaways

• Electability is Paramount: Alongside affordability,voters are heavily weighing which Democratic candidate has the best chance of winning the general election.
• Affordability Drives the Narrative: Declining consumer confidence is amplifying concerns about the economy and increasing the importance of economic solutions.
• California as a Focal Point: California’s challenges will be scrutinized, but these issues are national in scope.
• Systemic Solutions Needed: addressing affordability and social problems requires comprehensive, nationwide strategies.

Looking Ahead: The interplay between affordability and electability will define the 2028 Democratic primary. Candidates who can convincingly demonstrate both economic competence and broad appeal will be best positioned to succeed. The ability to articulate a vision for a more affordable and equitable future, while simultaneously projecting the strength to win a national election, will be the ultimate test for aspiring Democratic leaders.

Publication Date: 2025/11/16 18:54:30