Oil Markets Jittery as Iran Exports Despite Strait of Hormuz Tensions and Iraq Resumes Limited Exports

Global oil markets are experiencing volatility amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with concerns centered around disruptions to supply through the Strait of Hormuz and limited resumption of Iraqi exports. Despite the tensions, Iran continues to export millions of barrels of oil daily, while Iraq has begun a limited restart of shipments via Turkey.

Iran Maintains Oil Exports Amidst War

Approximately 90 ships, including oil tankers, have traversed the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict with Iran, according to maritime and trade data platforms Live5News. Iran has exported over 16 million barrels of oil since the beginning of March, with China being the primary buyer due to Western sanctions.

Many of these vessels are conducting “dark” transits, evading Western sanctions and oversight, and potentially having ties to Iran. More recently, ships linked to India and Pakistan have also successfully navigated the strait as negotiations intensify. Analysts at Kpler note “continued resilience” in Iran’s oil export volumes PBS. Iran is leveraging its control over this critical chokepoint to maintain its oil revenue stream.

Roughly 89 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 15, including 16 oil tankers, a decrease from the 100-135 vessels that typically pass through daily before the conflict Live5News.

Iraq Resumes Limited Oil Exports

Iraq has resumed limited oil exports, approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd), through the Turkish port of Ceyhan NDTV. This development initially caused a slight dip in oil prices on Wednesday, but analysts caution that the impact is limited as Iraq’s overall oil production remains significantly below normal levels. Crude oil sales represent 90 percent of Iraq’s budget revenues Times of Israel.

Geopolitical Concerns and Price Volatility

The conflict in the Middle East, which began in late February with attacks on Iran, has largely paralyzed shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply. Approximately 20 vessels have been attacked in the area. Brent crude prices have surged to nearly $120 a barrel this month due to supply concerns.

U.S. President Donald Trump previously urged allies to deploy warships and reopen the strait to lower oil prices as crude spiked above $100 a barrel.

SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye warned that any further escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure would likely lead to further price increases NDTV.

Iran Seeks Passage for Iraqi Oil

Iraq has requested Iran’s assistance in securing passage for its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz Times of Israel.