Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Food Security

Even as media coverage of the ongoing conflict and Iran’s actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz has largely focused on energy prices, the implications for global food supplies are equally alarming. A prolonged closure could disrupt agriculture worldwide and place over 100 million people at risk of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Current Situation

Since the start of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, only a limited number of vessels have been able to transit the Strait of Hormuz, down from approximately 100 per day. Reports indicate Iran has been laying sea mines in the waterway, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged closure [1]. More than 1,000 cargo ships, primarily oil and gas tankers, are currently blocked from transiting the strait [2].

The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Artery

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, but it is as well a critical artery of the global food system. Key food staples – including wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, sugar, and animal feed – travel through the Strait on their way to the Gulf countries. Farmers globally depend on the fertilizers and fuel that flow out of it [3].

Vulnerability of the Gulf States

Gulf states are particularly vulnerable, relying heavily on imported food. They depend on open waterways and consistent international shipments to secure grain, rice, animal feed, and cooking oil. Approximately 70% of the food consumed in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Supplying these countries, with a combined population of around 100 million, would require delivering approximately 191.3 million pounds of food daily if the Strait were fully blockaded [2].

Humanitarian Implications

Supplying the Gulf under a blockade would necessitate an unprecedented humanitarian operation, potentially through contested airspace. For comparison, the United Nations World Food Programme delivered an average of just 15 million pounds of food per day to 81 million people in 71 countries in 2024.

Impact on Iran

A full blockade would also significantly harm Iran, restricting energy exports and increasing the cost of imported staples like wheat, rice, animal feed, and vegetable oil. Rising prices for basic necessities have already contributed to social unrest within the country.

Historical Precedents

Historically, food price spikes and shortages have been major drivers of political instability. The 2008 energy and fertilizer cost increases, combined with extreme weather, sparked food riots globally. Similarly, the 2010-2011 Russian drought and heatwave led to record high food prices and contributed to the Arab Spring. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further exacerbated global food insecurity [2].

Fertilizer and Fuel Dependence

Farmers worldwide depend on stable supplies of fertilizer and fuel. Natural gas is a key component of nitrogen fertilizer, and an estimated 30-40% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Increased fertilizer and fuel costs lead to reduced yields and higher food prices throughout the supply chain.

Water Security Risks

Beyond food and fuel, water security is also at risk. Attacks on desalination plants in Bahrain and Iran have already been reported, and deliberate strikes targeting these facilities would constitute war crimes. Disrupting desalination would threaten millions of lives, as both countries face severe water shortages.

The Need for Prevention and Resilience

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, whether through sea mines or military conflict, could inflict civilian harm on a scale comparable to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. All parties involved, along with the international community, must prioritize preventing such an outcome. Policymakers must also act to strengthen the global food system to mitigate the impact of future shocks.