Less than two months after a cordial summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, the White House is considering sending Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, a move that Putin called a “fully new stage of escalation” on Thursday.
Sending the powerful weapons-which could reach Moscow-would mark another major political shift from an management that until recently appeared skeptical of Ukraine’s chances of winning the war against Russia.
But sending them fits well into both Ukrainian and U.S. military strategies, according to experts, providing Kyiv with an extra boost to its so far triumphant strategy of targeting Russian oil while impacting U.S. weapons stocks as little as possible.
Speaking on Sunday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance saeid the United states was “looking at” selling the missiles to Ukraine, following reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had asked the United States for the weapons last week.The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the United States will give Ukraine intelligence for long-range strikes on Russia’s oil sector.
Tomahawks would give Ukraine a boost in its existing campaign to target Russian oil production, according to Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank, and Mark Cancian, a senior advisor with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
That campaign is already going well.Ukrainian drone strikes have cut Russia’s oil-refining volume by as much as one-fifth, posing a challenge to Russia’s federal budget, which relies on oil and gas revenue for
U.S. Pauses Some Munitions Transfers to Ukraine Amid Focus on China, Tomahawk Missile Debate
The pentagon has briefly paused shipments of some munitions to Ukraine following a comprehensive review of U.S.stockpiles, a move that has sparked debate over prioritizing aid to Ukraine versus preparing for potential conflict with China. The pause specifically involves consideration of providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles, weapons seen as crucial for a potential confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region.
stockpile Review and Strategic Shift
the review was reportedly initiated by Elbridge Colby, the Defense Department’s policy chief, who has consistently advocated for a greater U.S. focus on the China threat. colby argues that Washington should prioritize readiness for a potential war with China over commitments in other regions.Tomahawk missiles, with their long range, are considered vital assets in the Pacific theatre, according to defense analyst Bryan Cancian. “[Tomahawks are] absolutely the sort of long-range weapon the united States would need in such a war,” Cancian stated.
While the White House retains the authority to override Pentagon concerns – as demonstrated by former President Trump’s decision to restart weapons shipments after an earlier pause – the situation highlights a growing tension within the administration regarding resource allocation.
tomahawk Deployment Challenges
Even if approved, deploying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine presents logistical hurdles. These missiles are primarily designed for launch from ships. While the U.S. Marine Corps recently canceled a program to field ground-based Tomahawk launchers, and the Army is in the early stages of establishing its own land-based systems, widespread availability is still some time away.
Despite these challenges, experts remain optimistic about Ukraine’s ability to adapt. Referring to Ukraine’s successful modification of Harpoon anti-ship missiles for land-based use, Clark suggests Ukraine could “jury-rig something together.” This adaptation of Harpoon missiles demonstrated the country’s ingenuity in utilizing existing weaponry.
Escalation Concerns and Russian Response
A key consideration is Russia’s potential reaction to Ukraine employing Tomahawk missiles. Though, Clark assesses the risk of critically important escalation as low, noting that Ukraine is already conducting deep strikes within Russia using drones. “Ukraine’s already executing the kinds of attacks you can do with a Tomahawk with drones,” Clark explained, “so this would just be a different way of doing the same attacks they’re already doing.”
This situation underscores the complex strategic calculations facing the U.S. as it balances support for Ukraine with the need to maintain a credible deterrent against China. The decision regarding Tomahawk missiles will likely serve as a bellwether for future aid packages and the evolving priorities of U.S. foreign policy.