Key Things to Know Today

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES

Again, no changes to report today.All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES

BNZ have trimmed a very small number of term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BEST IN THREE YEARS

Job ads have now risen by +1% in each of the past four months and are up +7% year-on-year, according to SEEK. And that is their fastest growth rate as 2022.

BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE?

House prices have now been ‘broadly flat’ for three years in a row, BNZ’s chief economist says. The end of the RBNZ’s rate cutting cycle is in sight he says and longer term fixed mortgage rates may already be bottoming out.

AND NOW FONTERRA CUTS BACK PAYOUT FORECAST

Fonterra’s farmgate milk price forecast has been reduced to $9.50 per kilogram of milk solids from $10 on the back of weaker global prices.

TRACTOR SALES VOLATILE

After rising to a four year high in a september month,these was a sharpish retreat in tractor sales in October,down to a three year low (for an October) of just 234 units.

SWITCHING TREND RISES

In October, 2831 home loan borrowers changed their bank, almost identical to the 2821 who changed in October 2024.The average loan size being switch was $692,000 (not quite a record), and well above the average loan size for a property purchase of $608,000, which was (just) a record high. Even though October switching as littl;e-changed on a year-on-year basis,it has been rising,so that for the whole year to October a record 34,230 loans were switched between banks,and a third more than in the year to October 2024. There were a total of 1.4 million home loans across 1.2 million customers at the end of June, according to the NZBA.So about one in 40 mortgages change banks each year.

BANKING INDUSTRY RESULTS

The RBNZ will release its September 2025 dashboard tomorrow which allows us to see individual bank results and positions. Today it released some industry data, which showed the overall net interest margin at 2.30%, down from 2.34% both one and two years ago. From the same quarter a year ago, bank net interest income was down -16%, and bank net interest expense was down -26.7%. The amount of net interest rose in the quarter to almost $4.1 bln and a new record high. Total industry assets (basically loans) rose +6.2% from a year ago to $759 bln.

Currency and Bitcoin Snapshot

Here’s a quick look at how currencies are performing. Against the US dollar, the Australian dollar remains relatively stable at 86.9 AUc. We’re also holding steady against the euro, currently at 48.7 euro cents. the Trade Weighted Index (TWI-5) has increased by 10 basis points since yesterday, landing just below 60.9.

Bitcoin Performance

bitcoin’s price is currently US$87,837, a rise of 0.8% from yesterday. Volatility is moderate, fluctuating around +/- 2.2%.