Japan’s Birth Rate Hits Modern Low, Population Decline Accelerates

Tokyo, Japan – Japan’s declining birth rate has reached a new nadir, with preliminary data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on February 27, 2026, revealing a record low of 705,809 births in 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 15,179, or 2.1 percent, compared to the previous year. It marks the tenth consecutive year of decline and the lowest number of births recorded since 1899.

A Decade of Decline

Over the past decade, Japan’s annual birth rate has fallen by approximately 30 percent, signaling a deepening demographic crisis. Despite government efforts to encourage larger families, the downward trend persists, occurring more than 15 years ahead of previous projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

Widening Gap Between Births and Deaths

In 2025, Japan recorded 1,605,654 deaths, a slight decrease of 0.8 percent from the previous year – the first decline in five years. However, the natural decrease in population, the difference between deaths and births, widened to a record high of 899,845 people. This indicates an accelerating rate of population shrinkage.

Regional Variations

The decline in births was observed in 45 of Japan’s 47 prefectures. Shimane, Yamagata, and Aomori experienced declines exceeding 5 percent. However, there were exceptions.

Tokyo saw an increase of 1.3 percent, with 88,518 births – an increase of 4,311 compared to the previous year. This is the first increase in the capital in nine years. Ishikawa Prefecture also recorded a rise in births, from 6,078 to 6,515, following a sharp decline the previous year attributed to the Noto Peninsula earthquake and heavy rainfall.

Approximately 30 percent of all births nationwide occur in the Tokyo metropolitan area, encompassing Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama prefectures.

Marriage and Divorce Trends

The number of marriages in 2025 increased by 1.1 percent to 505,656 couples, exceeding 500,000 for the first time in three years. This increase coincides with the recovery of the wedding industry following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. Conversely, the divorce rate fell by 6,983 cases to 182,969.

Government Response and Challenges

Despite the slight improvement in marriage rates, the Japanese government acknowledges significant challenges. Deputy Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki stated that many citizens desire to have children but are unable to fulfill that desire. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

The government has pledged to focus on sustainable economic growth, increasing income for younger generations, and ensuring stable employment to alleviate future anxieties, aiming to create a society where individuals who wish to have children can do so without financial or social burdens.

Key Takeaways

• Japan’s birth rate reached a record low of 705,809 in 2025.
• The natural decrease in population widened to a record 899,845.
• Tokyo and Ishikawa prefectures were the only regions to witness an increase in births.
• Marriage rates are up, but the government acknowledges ongoing challenges.