Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina Lead South American Oil Growth

Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are poised to significantly reshape the energy map of Latin America, driving a surge in oil production through offshore expansion and the development of unconventional resources. These three nations are attracting substantial investment and spearheading key oil projects, positioning themselves as dominant players in the South American energy market.

Brazil’s Offshore Dominance

Brazil is currently the largest oil producer in South America, bolstered by substantial output from its pre-salt deposits. Production reached a record high of nearly 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, representing 79.63% of the country’s total oil equivalent production [1]. This growth is fueled by new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels operating in deepwater offshore resources, including Equinor’s Bacalhau field, which began operations in October 2025 [1]. Further expansion is expected with the addition of two more FPSOs at Petrobras’ Buzios field [3]. Brazil’s crude oil production is forecast to average around 4.0 million bpd in 2026 [1].

Argentina’s Shale Revolution

Argentina is experiencing a resurgence in oil production, driven by the development of its unconventional Vaca Muerta shale play. By December 2025, Vaca Muerta reached 589,000 barrels of oil per day, a 31% increase compared to 2024, accounting for approximately 68% of the country’s total production [2]. In December 2025, Argentina achieved record oil production of 878,800 barrels per day, surpassing previous highs [2]. Argentina’s oil production is projected to average 810,000 bpd in 2026 [3].

Guyana’s Rapid Ascent

Guyana is experiencing one of the fastest rates of oil production growth globally, with output increasing tenfold since 2020. Driven by developments in the Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil and its partners, production averaged an estimated 750,000 bpd in 2025 [2]. ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project reached full capacity in late 2025, pushing production above 900,000 bpd in November [2]. The start-up of the Uaru project in 2026 is expected to add 250,000 bpd, potentially pushing Guyana’s production past 1.0 million bpd by 2027 [2] and [3].

Regional Impact and Global Implications

Collectively, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to contribute significantly to global oil supply growth in 2026, accounting for approximately half of the projected 0.8 million bpd increase [1] and [2]. JPMorgan estimates that these three countries could contribute between 750,000 and 1 million barrels per day to global supply outside of OPEC+ [4]. These developments are expected to attract the largest proportion of oil investment in the coming years and solidify their position as key players in the South American energy market.

Venezuela’s Potential and Colombia’s Challenges

Even as Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina lead the growth, Venezuela is also poised for a recovery, with oil sales already exceeding $1 billion and a goal to reach $5 billion in the coming months [2]. Production is projected to reach 1.5 million barrels per day in the next two years [2]. However, Colombia faces challenges due to a policy of not signing new oil exploration contracts, potentially widening the gap between its production and that of its regional counterparts [2].