Europe Bolsters Defenses Amidst Rising Russian Threat
As the security landscape in Europe shifts, driven by Russia’s actions and evolving geopolitical dynamics, European nations are significantly increasing their defense capabilities. This includes expanding army sizes, investing in modernization and exploring new frameworks for collective security. The changes reflect a growing recognition of the demand for greater European defense independence and preparedness for potential conflict.
The Three Heavyweight Military States
France
In 2025, France launched a voluntary, paid, 10-month military service program for citizens aged 18-25, with deployments limited to France and its overseas territories. This initiative aims to bolster France’s defense capacity. The program intends to recruit 3,000 members by September 2026, increasing to 4,000 in 2027, and 10,000 annually by 2030, with monthly application intakes.
France has also doubled its reservist numbers, from 28,000 in 2014 to over 46,000 in 2025. Coupled with increased military spending – aiming to double the 2017 budget by 2027 – France is strengthening its defense capabilities. The 2026 budget, initially stalled, has now been approved, enabling President Macron to fulfill his spending commitments.
Currently, the French army comprises approximately 200,000 personnel. Including the targeted 3,000 reservists by September 2026, the total defense force could reach nearly 50,000, providing substantial defensive strength.
Germany
Historically possessing a relatively small army due to post-World War II demilitarization, Germany’s defense posture began to shift after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite some domestic opposition and protests regarding the reinstatement of conscription, Germany is now focused on building Europe’s largest land army.
The Bundeswehr Association aims to increase the army’s size to 260,000 from its current level of around 180,000. Germany has also pledged significant increases in defense spending, approving a record $128 billion budget for 2026 and placing substantial military orders for drones and other equipment.
Germany has also reintroduced a form of voluntary national service, with participants eligible for mobilization in the event of an invasion. This signifies a substantial change in Germany’s approach to militarization.
Poland
Poland currently maintains the largest army within the European Union, with approximately 215,000 active-duty soldiers. Plans are in place to expand this force to 300,000 active soldiers and 200,000 reservists by 2039, a significant increase from the 116,200 personnel in 2020.
Poland’s 2026 defense budget is set to reach 4.8% of GDP, the highest proportion in Europe. The country is actively procuring military hardware, including K2 Black Panther tanks, K9 Thunder howitzers, FA-50 Fighting Eagle fighter jets, Patriot air defense batteries, M1A1 Abrams tanks, 32 F-35 fighter jets, AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, and Saab A26 submarines. A key challenge for Poland remains the development of a robust domestic defense industry.
Defense Spending and Preparedness Across Europe
Germany, France, and Poland are leading the way in enhancing their defense capabilities, but other European nations are also increasing spending and preparedness. Overall defense spending across Europe rose by 20% in 2024.
The United Kingdom is doubling its troop presence in Norway to deter potential Russian aggression. UK Defence Secretary John Healy announced plans to create a “British Army that is 10 times more lethal,” integrating increased personnel and armored capabilities with air defense, communications, artificial intelligence, long-range weapons, and drone technology. The UK aims to maintain a standing army strength of at least 80,000. Recruitment numbers in the UK have also seen a positive trend, with more personnel joining than leaving in late 2025.
While some countries, like Spain, have historically struggled to meet NATO’s spending targets, they are increasing their defense budgets to reach 2% of GDP, alongside Belgium, Luxembourg, and Slovenia. Denmark and Finland have increased spending by over 3%, Estonia by 5.4% annually until 2029, Latvia by 4% in 2026 (increasing to 5%), and Lithuania between 5% and 6% by 2030. Scandinavian, Northern, Baltic, and Eastern European countries demonstrate the greatest commitment to increasing defense spending and readiness, with Finland capable of deploying 280,000 personnel in the event of a conflict with Russia.
The European Union’s Response
The European Union has adopted the “Readiness 2030” initiative, formerly known as ReArm Europe, proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. This initiative focuses on increasing defense spending, addressing capability gaps, building up stockpiles, enhancing naval capabilities, strengthening cybersecurity, countering drone threats, and generally preparing for crises and war.
Challenges and Potential Solutions
Several challenges hinder increased military spending and preparedness across Europe, including recruitment difficulties and integration issues. Some nations struggle to meet recruitment targets, while others face budgetary constraints.
many European armies have traditionally trained for different types of conflict, potentially lacking preparedness for modern warfare scenarios, such as drone warfare. Ukraine’s experience offers valuable expertise and innovation that could assist Europe in preparing for a potential conflict with Russia.
Deeper defense integration and the creation of a new defense framework, potentially including a European army independent of NATO, could improve coordination and effectiveness. Experts suggest the EU could develop its own command headquarters to oversee both EU forces and national armed forces, addressing concerns about duplication with NATO and potential US opposition.