Declining Birth Rates in Ukraine and Russia: A Looming Demographic Crisis

Four years of war between Russia and Ukraine are beginning to capture their toll on the countries’ demographics, as the conflict deters women from starting or expanding their families. A decline in birth rates can have far-reaching consequences for economies and societies.

Fertility Rate Decline in Ukraine

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, Ukraine’s fertility rate has plummeted. In 2021, Ukraine’s total fertility rate stood at 1.22, but this dropped to 1.00 in 2025, according to United Nations population data The Kyiv Independent. First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, warned in December that the rate had further plunged to 0.8–0.9 children per woman due to the war and insecurity The Kyiv Independent.

A total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is necessary for a society to replace itself without relying on migration.

Russia’s Fertility Trends

Russia has as well experienced a longer-term downward trend in its fertility rate, exacerbated by the war. In 2021, Russia’s fertility rate was 1.51, but by 2025, it had dropped to 1.37 children per woman, down from 1.4 recorded the year before The New York Times.

Broader European and Asian Trends

Declining fertility and birth rates are not unique to Ukraine and Russia; the trend is observed in various European and Asian countries, often linked to career choices, lifestyle factors, and economic constraints.

Impact of War on Birth Rates

Four years of war appear to have significantly deterred women in Ukraine from having children. In Russia, women have shown resistance to repeated calls from the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin to have larger families.

Economic and Societal Consequences

Declining birth rates pose significant problems for countries, impacting the economy and society. Fewer births translate to a smaller future workforce, lower productivity, and slower economic growth. This leads to reduced tax revenues for governments and increased strain on pension and healthcare systems as an aging population grows and relies on a shrinking working population.

Iryna Ippolitova, a senior researcher at the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy, noted that Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine already affected sentiment toward having children in those regions. The full-scale invasion in 2022 worsened the situation, leading to mass migration and uncertainty Reuters.

“A lot of women who theoretically could have children left, and for those who stayed, the war and uncertainty meant they were unprepared to give birth in Ukraine, and the number of births is still declining,” Ippolitova said.

Even with a potential peace agreement, Ippolitova believes migration from Ukraine could continue, and those remaining might be hesitant to start families due to fears of future Russian invasions, highlighting the need for security guarantees as part of any peace deal.

Ippolitova also warned of labor shortages, stating, “We have labor shortages right now, already, and after the war, it will only get worse… In 10 or 15 years when people my age retire, there will be nobody to replace them on the labor market.”

Russia’s Efforts to Encourage Births

Despite being the aggressor, Russia is also experiencing declining birth rates. President Putin has promoted larger families as a “traditional Russian value” and patriotic duty, and the state has introduced incentives, including lump-sum payments, tax breaks, and benefits. The Kremlin even revived the Soviet-era “Mother Heroine” award, offering a cash reward of 1 million rubles (around $13,000) for having 10 or more children.

However, these incentives have had limited success. Russia recorded 1.222 million births in 2024, the lowest annual total since 1999 The New York Times. Putin acknowledged a fertility rate of 1.4 in 2025 and called for a “baby boom.”

Underlying Issues in Russia

Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, argues that Putin’s focus on increasing birth rates is more about societal control than demographic concerns. He suggests that Putin’s policies aim to keep women at home and focused on family rather than political engagement.

Sonin also contends that Putin’s decision to start the war against Ukraine demonstrates a disregard for demographics, as the conflict has caused economic instability, labor shortages, and inflation. He believes the low birth rate in Russia reflects a lack of safety and security among women.

“There are more important things for any woman, for any young family, than just how much money in a direct cash transfer they will receive from the state. What matters for them is the general feeling of safety. And this is not there in Russia,” Sonin said.