Voter Trust in US Elections Declines Amidst Partisan Concerns
Voter confidence in the fairness and accuracy of U.S. Elections has significantly decreased, according to new research from the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections at UC San Diego. The decline is occurring across party lines, fueled by differing concerns about election security and integrity.
Sharp Drop in Voter Confidence
A recent survey conducted between mid-December and mid-January revealed that only 60% of eligible voters expressed confidence that midterm votes will be counted fairly. This is a substantial decrease from the 77% who held similar confidence shortly after the 2024 presidential election, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
Partisan Divides in Distrust
While shifts in voter confidence are common after elections, with confidence typically fluctuating based on election outcomes, the current decline is broad-based. The UC San Diego center’s co-director, Thad Kousser, described the trend as a “parallel movement in this polarized era.”
Republicans are primarily concerned about potential mail ballot fraud and noncitizen voting, with half of Republicans citing these issues as reasons for their decreased trust. Democrats, are more worried about voter intimidation and the potential for disenfranchisement, particularly related to stricter voter ID laws and the presence of federal agents at polling places. Approximately a quarter of Democrats expressed concerns about eligible voters being unable to cast ballots due to fear or intimidation.
Concerns Over Redistricting and Federal Intervention
Beyond specific concerns about voting methods, a majority of voters across all political affiliations expressed distrust in the fairness of congressional district maps. Over 50% of Democrats, 48% of independents, and 34% of Republicans do not trust that congressional districts are drawn to fairly reflect voter preferences, with many blaming the opposing party.
Adding to these concerns, a significant percentage of voters believe it is likely that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents will be present at voting locations in their area. This prospect evokes different reactions depending on political affiliation, with Republicans generally expressing increased confidence and Democrats expressing decreased confidence.
The Role of Political Rhetoric
Lauren Prather, co-director of the UC San Diego center, emphasized the impact of messaging from political leaders on public perception. Concerns raised by prominent figures, such as former President Trump, are being echoed by voters, contributing to the overall decline in trust.
Long-Term Implications for Democracy
Experts warn that sustained distrust in elections could lead to decreased voter turnout over time. While recent elections have seen high participation rates, the erosion of confidence poses a long-term risk to the health of American democracy. Election experts urge voters to double-check their registration, make a plan to vote early, or vote with family and friends if they are worried about intimidation. The most crucial action, they say, is to vote.
UC San Diego’s Efforts to Rebuild Trust
In October 2025, UC San Diego launched the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections, funded by a $2.5 million grant from the Election Trust Initiative. The center aims to rebuild American confidence in elections through research, partnerships with election administrators, and testing of transparency initiatives, such as public tours of election facilities and live-streamed ballot counting.