Militant Islamist insurgencies in the Sahel have intensified significantly since 2020, with fatalities linked to extremist groups rising to nearly 9,800 over the past year, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Despite this surge, military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have prioritized the consolidation of political power and the suppression of domestic dissent over the strategic reassessment of their failing security operations.
Security Deterioration Under Military Rule
The military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger seized power citing the inability of elected predecessors to manage insecurity. However, data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies indicates that fatalities from militant Islamist violence are now approximately seven times higher than in 2019.
Insurgent groups, most notably the Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), have expanded their operational reach across a 1,200-kilometer theater. These groups are increasingly targeting major population centers and critical infrastructure, moving beyond their traditional strongholds into previously unaffected regions of coastal West Africa.
Political Crackdowns in Mali
In Mali, the military junta has responded to recent security failures with a wave of detentions rather than operational reform. Following coordinated attacks in April and July, authorities arrested numerous political figures, journalists, and civil society leaders. According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, these detainees include veteran political leader Mountaga Tall and political analyst Moussa Djiré. There is no public evidence linking these individuals to the military setbacks, suggesting the junta is prioritizing the neutralization of political rivals over addressing tactical weaknesses in intelligence and force posture.
Repression and Institutional Collapse in Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso currently accounts for roughly half of all militant Islamist-linked fatalities in the Sahel. The junta’s response has been marked by the systemic dismantling of independent institutions.
- Media and Judiciary: Investigative journalist Serge Oulon remains missing following his 2024 detention. Additionally, several magistrates have reported abduction and torture during investigations.
- Civil Society: In April, the junta dissolved more than 100 nongovernmental organizations. This follows the January 2026 action that dissolved all political parties.
- Internal Control: Even pro-junta groups face scrutiny; the death of a member of the Wayiyan movement while in detention highlights the junta’s increasing reliance on coercive measures against its own supporters.
Rising Instability in Niger
Since the July 2023 coup, Niger has seen a fourfold increase in violence linked to militant Islamist groups. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and JNIM-affiliated fighters have repeatedly targeted the Niamey international airport, a critical strategic asset.
The junta has countered these threats by intensifying pressure on the opposition. Activist Mariama Djibrine was stripped of her citizenship in June, and former Prime Minister Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou has been placed on the junta’s terrorism list, resulting in frozen assets and travel restrictions. Former President Mohamed Bazoum remains confined to the presidential residence in Niamey, with multiple mediation efforts failing to secure his release.
Strategic Implications for the Sahel
The refusal of these regimes to engage with independent voices—including journalists, religious leaders, and civil society—has effectively silenced the public debate necessary to address the regional security crisis. Military analysts at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies observe that successful counter-insurgency requires building trust with local populations and fostering inclusive governance. By narrowing the political space, the juntas have limited their own ability to adapt to a complex, evolving threat, leaving the region increasingly vulnerable to further destabilization.
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