A New Scramble for Africa’s Critical Minerals
A new competition for influence in Africa is unfolding, not through traditional colonialism, but through the demand for the minerals essential to the global energy transition and technological advancements. This race centers on securing access to lithium, cobalt, graphite, manganese, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements – the building blocks of electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and digital infrastructure.
A Shift from Extraction to Industrialization
Unlike the colonial era, Africa is now equipped with regional economic blocs that, if strategically utilized, can shape the outcomes of this mineral rush. Even though, the critical question remains: will these blocs act collectively to maximize their benefit, or will internal competition undermine their negotiating power?
Regional Dynamics and Opportunities
SADC: At the Epicenter of the Energy Transition
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is central to the global energy transition mineral landscape. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominates cobalt production, accounting for 70% of global supply [1]. Zimbabwe holds significant lithium deposits, while South Africa controls substantial reserves of platinum and manganese. Zambia remains a key supplier of copper. Despite this concentration of resources, value addition remains limited, with raw exports predominating.
If SADC members coordinate policies on beneficiation, harmonize royalty regimes, and develop regional battery precursor industries, they could collectively increase their economic gains. Failure to do so risks a race to attract foreign capital that weakens their bargaining position.
ECOWAS: Navigating Instability
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) possesses significant mineral wealth, including Guinea’s bauxite, Ghana’s lithium prospects, and widespread gold reserves. However, governance instability and political fragmentation pose risks. Without regulatory harmonization, multinational corporations may exploit policy gaps and asymmetries.
EAC: Building on Integration
The East African Community (EAC) is emerging as a source of graphite and rare earth elements. Its progress in customs integration and common market protocols provides a foundation for coordinated industrial policy, but extending this framework to strategic mineral processing and regional manufacturing remains a challenge.
The African Union and the African Mining Vision
The African Union has long advocated for the African Mining Vision, a blueprint for resource-based industrialization. However, this vision requires enforcement. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a platform to transform mineral extraction into continental value chains, but its success depends on alignment between regional blocs and the continental strategy.
Global Competition and Strategic Partnerships
The new scramble is characterized by contracts, financing agreements, and strategic partnerships. Europe seeks supply chain security, while China focuses on long-term offtake agreements [3]. The United States and Gulf states are also increasing their engagement. While not inherently exploitative, the absence of coordination could lead to a repeat of historical patterns, where Africa supplies raw materials while importing finished products.
Towards Value Capture and Industrialization
Several African nations are actively pursuing strategies to capture more value from their mineral resources. Zimbabwe and Namibia have taken measures to ban the export of raw lithium, aiming to compel industrial giants to establish local refining plants [3]. Zimbabwe enforced this restriction starting in 2022 and plans to extend it to concentrates by 2027, while Namibia followed suit in 2023. The goal is to transform a rent-based economy into a genuine industrial hub, with Zimbabwe’s lithium market potentially reaching $3 billion by 2030 through local value addition.
Key Considerations for the Future
- Establish common mineral pricing principles.
- Implement mandatory regional beneficiation targets.
- Create transparent contract registries.
- Establish sovereign mineral funds to capture intergenerational value.
- Design infrastructure corridors to support industrialization, not just extraction.
Critical minerals have the potential to drive Africa’s structural transformation, or they could reinforce dependency under the guise of a greener future. The actions of regional blocs will determine which path is taken. History is watching.
Africa, home to 70% of the world’s cobalt reserves and major lithium deposits, holds a key card in the face of an expected $1.8–8 trillion global AI market by 2030 [3]. The continent’s position in the global landscape is increasingly significant, having led global production of cobalt, copper, gold and platinum group metals in 2024, while rapidly expanding lithium output [1].