China and Russia’s Response to US-Israel Strikes on Iran Tests Geopolitical Alignments
The recent coordinated military campaign by the United States and Israel against Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has elicited responses from global powers, notably China and Russia. While both nations condemned the strikes, their reactions have been measured, revealing a complex interplay of strategic interests and limited commitments to Tehran.
Condemnation and Calls for Restraint
Both China and Russia swiftly condemned the US-Israel operation. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi voiced strong disapproval, deeming the attack “unacceptable,” particularly the targeting of a sovereign nation’s leader with the intent of regime change according to reports. Moscow echoed this sentiment, labeling the action an “act of aggression” that violated international law and the principles of the UN Charter as reported by TIME.
China’s Balancing Act
Despite the condemnation, neither China nor Russia has pledged concrete support to Iran. Analysts suggest this reflects a strategic calculation by Beijing, prioritizing its détente with the United States. Gabriel Wildau, Managing Director of Teneo, noted that China is unlikely to take substantial action to support Tehran, as maintaining a stable relationship with Washington remains a key priority as reported by Channel NewsAsia.
This approach is consistent with China’s historical foreign policy, which avoids formal security commitments to countries outside of established alliances. A social media account linked to Chinese state media stated bluntly that “Iran has no real allies,” suggesting that even close partners will prioritize their own national interests according to Channel NewsAsia. China has previously refrained from providing material support to Iran, even while criticizing US and Israeli actions, and supported UN sanctions prior to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Beijing may seek concessions from the US on issues such as Taiwan and trade in exchange for a more restrained stance on Iran as suggested by Ahmed Aboudouh of Chatham House. An upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could be a venue for such negotiations.
Russia’s Constrained Influence
Russia’s relationship with Iran has deepened in recent years, with Iran becoming a key supplier of military drones and missiles since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders has been diminished by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions according to Matt Gerken of BCA Research.
The rising oil prices following the attacks, however, benefit Russia, providing increased revenue to fund its war efforts. Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, pointed out that Putin may welcome the situation as it provides an alternative oil supply source should Gulf supplies be disrupted as reported by Channel NewsAsia. Russia has historically adopted a “wait and see” approach to global events that do not directly impact its core interests.
Will the Iranian Regime Fall?
Experts question whether airstrikes alone will be sufficient to trigger regime change in Iran. Michael McFaul, a Stanford Professor and former US ambassador to Russia, noted that historically, airstrikes have rarely led to the overthrow of governments as reported by Channel NewsAsia. He emphasized that eliminating military targets does not necessarily equate to dismantling the instruments of oppression used against the Iranian people.
The situation remains fluid, and the long-term implications for regional stability and global geopolitics are yet to be seen.