Record Heatwave Accelerates Sierra Snowpack Melt, Threatening Early End to Ski Season

An unprecedented March heatwave is sweeping across Northern California and the wider West, shattering daily records and raising concerns about the future of the ski season. The unusually warm temperatures are not only impacting recreational activities but also accelerating the melting of the crucial Sierra snowpack, a vital source of California’s water supply.

Record-Breaking Temperatures

Sacramento and other Northern California cities experienced record-high temperatures on Tuesday, March 18, 2026, with San Francisco, Stockton, Modesto and South Lake Tahoe also breaking daily records, according to the National Weather Service. Stockton’s high of 87 degrees tied the city’s all-March record. Sacramento reached 80 degrees for the first time this year on Sunday, matching a record set in 2007. Monday saw a new record high of 84 degrees, surpassing the previous record of 83 degrees in 2007.

The KCRA 3 weather team forecasts a high of 89 degrees on Wednesday, March 19, and 90 degrees on Thursday, potentially marking Sacramento Executive Airport’s earliest 90-degree day on record – more than two weeks before the previous record of April 6, 1989. Sacramento is also on track to surpass its record for the most 80-degree days in March, currently at seven, with at least eight anticipated.

Sierra Snowpack Declining Rapidly

The early heat is significantly impacting the Sierra snowpack. The UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab reported on March 16, 2026, that, based on current projections, the lab site could be without snow as early as the first week of April – approximately five weeks earlier than normal. The snowpack is declining at an average rate of 1% per day, according to the California Department of Water Resources [2].

Statewide Snowpack Status

Despite recent storms that brought some increase, California’s snowpack remains below average. As of the third snow survey conducted on March 15, 2026, the statewide snowpack is at 66% of average for this date. The Phillips Station location is at 47% of average [3]. The southern Sierra is at 90% of average, while the northern Sierra is only at 46% [3].

Climate Change Connection

Experts attribute the intensity and duration of this heatwave, in part, to the effects of global climate change. NASA data shows that Earth’s global average temperature has been increasing since the Industrial Revolution, with the rate of increase nearly doubling in the past 50 years. This warming trend is making record high temperatures more likely. In the past six years, Sacramento’s Executive Airport has recorded 61 record high temperatures but only 6 record low temperatures.

Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index indicates that the heat in the Four Corners region this week is five times more likely to occur due to global temperature increases over the past 50 years.

Looking Ahead

The current high-pressure system is expected to bring summer-like temperatures to the region through the start of the weekend, with Sacramento highs ranging between 86 and 90 degrees. Tahoe-area temperatures will range between 70 and 76 degrees. The next snow survey is scheduled for April 1, when the state’s snowpack typically reaches its peak [3]. The rapid decline in snowpack underscores the need for adaptation and water management strategies in the face of a changing climate.