Brazil and Vietnam Coffee Crop Updates – December 2025
Table of Contents
Publication date: 2025/12/05 17:07:39
Brazil’s Coffee Production Outlook
Brazil’s 2025 coffee crop is projected to increase to 56.5 million bags, according to the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab).This represents an upward revision from the September estimate of 55.2 million bags and a 4.3% increase compared to the previous year’s harvest. The improved forecast is attributed to better-than-expected average national yields.
Arabica and Robusta Production
Conab estimates the arabica coffee crop at 35.76 million bags, a slight increase from the previous forecast of 35.15 million bags. Robusta production is expected to reach a record high of 20.77 million bags, up from 20.05 million previously estimated. This signifies a significant increase in robusta output.
Weather Conditions in Brazil
Recent rainfall in Brazil has been adequate to support coffee development throughout the growing season. While some rainfall has been light at times, World Weather Inc. anticipates improvements in the coming weeks, with increased intensity and broader coverage of precipitation. This positive outlook suggests continued favorable conditions for coffee production.
Vietnam’s Coffee Crop and Weather Concerns
Vietnam’s coffee crop has faced challenges due to excessive rainfall. However, recent drier conditions are proving beneficial for crop maturation and harvesting.
Potential Tropical Disturbance
A tropical disturbance near the central Philippines poses a potential threat to southern Vietnam. While current indications suggest the storm will remain south of the Central Highlands, the situation requires close monitoring. The Central Highlands region is a key coffee-growing area in Vietnam, and any disruption could impact the harvest.
Brazilian Coffee Exports
Brazil exported 212,150 metric tons of green coffee in November. This figure is lower than the 285,288 metric tons exported during the same period last year. Despite the decrease in overall exports, US roasters are reportedly showing increased interest in securing Brazilian coffee supplies.
Key Takeaways
- Brazil’s 2025 coffee crop is expected to be larger than previously estimated,driven by improved yields.
- Robusta production in Brazil is forecast to reach a new record high.
- Vietnam’s coffee crop is recovering from excessive rainfall, but a potential tropical disturbance warrants monitoring.
- Brazilian coffee exports decreased in November compared to the previous year, but demand from US roasters remains strong.
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