Indonesia Braces for Prolonged and Severe Dry Season Amidst “Godzilla” El Niño and Positive IOD
Jakarta – Indonesia is preparing for a significantly longer and drier dry season from April to October 2026, driven by the combined influence of a strong El Niño phenomenon, dubbed “Godzilla” by some, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD+). The prediction comes from climate and atmospheric researchers at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at BRIN’s Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research, explained that this El Niño is particularly potent, characterized by sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeding 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius . This warming in the eastern Pacific, coupled with cooling in the western Pacific, shifts cloud formation and rainfall patterns eastward.
“The strong impact of El Niño has the potential to make the dry season in Indonesia longer and drier,” Yulihastin stated . The situation is further exacerbated by the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD+), which causes cooling near Sumatra and Java, suppressing rainfall in the Indonesian region.
The combination of El Niño and IOD+ is expected to mirror the conditions experienced in 2023, when El Niño lasted from May 2023 to May 2024 and IOD+ occurred from July 2023 to February 2024 .
Potential Health Impacts of Extreme Heat
Beyond the environmental concerns, the intense heat associated with the “Godzilla” El Niño poses significant risks to public health. Exposure to high temperatures and humidity can lead to a range of medical issues, including:
- Migraine Attacks: Hot weather is a known trigger for migraines .
- Heart Attack: The cardiovascular system works harder to regulate body temperature in extreme heat, increasing the risk for individuals with pre-existing heart conditions .
- Stroke: Extreme heat places stress on the vascular system, particularly dangerous for the elderly and those with high blood pressure .
- Heat Stroke (Heat Shock): A life-threatening condition requiring immediate medical attention, characterized by altered behavior, slurred speech, and potential seizures .
- Blood Pressure Disorders: Heat can cause blood pressure to drop due to fluid loss or rise as the body attempts to cool itself .
- Acute Dehydration: Insufficient fluid intake relative to sweat loss can lead to dehydration, causing symptoms like dry mouth, dizziness, and increased heart rate .
Researchers at BRIN have urged the government to prepare targeted mitigation measures to address the varying regional risks associated with the anticipated dry season .