Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The price of gold remains high, currently in a consolidation phase, fueled by speculation surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the United States (US) Federal Reserve (The Fed). Analysts project gold prices could reach US $3,800 per troy ounce if The Fed lowers interest rates.
As of today’s trading, Monday (9/15/2025) at 06.XX WIB,the global spot gold price dipped 0.09% to US $3,639.45 per troy ounce.
In the previous trading session on Friday (12/9/2025),world gold prices increased 0.24% to US $3,642.63 per troy ounce.
[Line chart showing the movement of world gold prices/XAU (US$/troy ounce)]
Gold prices rose on Friday, remaining just below record highs, driven by indications of a weakening US labor market which bolstered speculation of a Fed interest rate cut this week, despite slightly stronger inflation data.
Gold is expected to rise by 2% this week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly increase. The precious metal has gained nearly 40% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases and demand for a safe haven amid trade uncertainties and President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Strong Speculation of Fed Interest Rate Cuts
Data released on Thursday (11/9/2025) revealed that US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, the highest in seven months.
However, the US labor market is showing signs of weakening, with weekly unemployment claims reaching a nearly four-year high and payroll growth slowing.
The market is increasingly confident in upcoming policy easing, particularly after weaker-than-expected US producer prices and meaningful revisions to official employment rates reinforced signs of a cooling labor market.
The market now anticipates a near-certain interest rate cut at the September 16-17 policy meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday this week). Over the next three days, gold market participants will gain clarity on whether The Fed will reduce the benchmark interest rate.
If a cut is implemented,gold owners…
Central Banks Maintain Strong Gold Demand; Price Forecasts Rise Amid Interest Rate Expectations
central bank gold purchases are expected to remain robust this year,projected to be between 900 and 950 tons – slightly below last year’s near-record high of over 1,000 tons. This continued demand underscores gold’s role as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold traditionally performs well in low-interest-rate environments.
UBS analysts highlight a key risk to gold’s performance: a potential need for the Federal Reserve (The Fed) to raise interest rates due to unexpected increases in inflation. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-set-record-high-central-bank-demand-continues-2024-01-26/
However, Commerzbank has increased its gold price forecast to $3,800 per Troy ounce by the end of 2026, up from a previous projection of $3,600. This revision is based on expectations of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed. The bank now anticipates a total of 200 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year, a 50 basis point increase from their earlier forecast.https://www.kitco.com/news/2024-05-16/Commerzbank-raises-gold-price-forecast-to-3-800-oz-by-end-of-2026.html
Alongside gold, silver prices are also surging, currently at a 14-year high.Like gold, silver is expected to benefit from potential Fed interest rate cuts. As of May 17, 2024, silver was trading around $31.40 per troy ounce. https://www.kitco.com/silver-price-today-usa/
(Datawrapper chart showing Silver/XAG price – US/troy ounce – included in original text)
Source: CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH ([email protected])