Trump Considers Strait of Hormuz Takeover as Iran War Escalates

United States President Donald Trump has indicated he is considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, amid escalating conflict with Iran. The potential move comes as the war between the U.S. And Iran enters its 11th day, with attacks continuing on Iranian targets as well as on U.S. Assets in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

Rising Oil Prices and Disrupted Energy Markets

The conflict has already sent oil prices soaring, exacerbated by threats from Iran to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Ebrahim Jabari, a senior advisor to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated on March 2nd that “The strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guard and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze.” Jabari likewise predicted oil prices would reach $200 per barrel in the coming days.

While oil prices have since declined from a peak of $119 a barrel on Sunday, they remain elevated above pre-war levels, hovering around $93 a barrel as of Tuesday. Further pressure on energy markets comes from disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. QatarEnergy halted LNG production last week following Iranian attacks on its facilities, and Saudi Arabia shut down operations at its Ras Tanura refinery due to a fire caused by intercepted Iranian drones.

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned of “catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets” and increasingly drastic consequences for the global economy the longer the disruption continues.

Trump’s Response and Potential Actions

During a CBS News interview on Monday, Trump stated he was “thinking about taking over” the Strait of Hormuz to ensure its continued operation. He also threatened a significant escalation of force against Iran should they impede oil flow through the strait. “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” Trump said. He reiterated his commitment to preventing Iran from holding the world hostage and disrupting the global oil supply.

Trump also expressed optimism that the war would be resolved quickly, initially estimating a duration of “four to five weeks,” though he later suggested the U.S. Military had the capability to continue operations for a longer period.

Legal and Practical Challenges to U.S. Control

While Trump has expressed interest in “taking over” the Strait of Hormuz, legal experts point to significant challenges. Alexander Freeman, a partner in the shipping team at UK-based law firm Hill Dickinson, explained that the U.S. Has no jurisdiction over the strait, which is not considered international waters under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

“Without the consent of Iran and Oman – whose sovereign territorial waters cover the Strait – the US taking over the Strait would likely amount to an incursion on Iran and Oman’s jurisdiction,” Freeman stated.

However, the possibility of U.S. Or international naval escorts for ships transiting the strait remains a viable option. Trump indicated the U.S. Navy would escort tankers “if necessary… as soon as possible.” France is also preparing a “purely defensive” escort mission, according to President Emmanuel Macron, to be conducted in coordination with European and non-European countries once the most intense phase of the conflict subsides.

Iran’s Stance and Strategy

Iranian leaders have shown no indication of de-escalation, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating Iran would continue fighting “for as long as necessary.” Kamal Kharazi, foreign policy advisor to the office of the supreme leader, ruled out diplomacy, citing past instances where he alleges the U.S. Failed to uphold its commitments during negotiations.

International security lecturer Rob Geist Pinfold suggests Iran is employing a different approach to warfare than in the past, focusing on maximizing chaos and destabilization to pressure the U.S. Into a ceasefire. While Iran claims to target only U.S. Assets, Pinfold notes the attacks have primarily focused on large-scale infrastructure and civilian targets.

Looking Ahead

The situation remains volatile. Scott Lucas, a professor of US and international politics at University College Dublin, suggests that domestic political pressures on Trump, particularly with the approaching U.S. Mid-term elections, could create an opportunity for Gulf states to advocate for a pullback. This would be especially true if oil prices continue to surge.