Forest Economics and Fiber Supply: The Looming Challenge for Print Publishers

European publishers have spent two decades navigating declining circulation, reduced advertising revenue, and mill closures. However, a novel challenge is emerging that could significantly impact the print industry: shifts in forest economics and fiber supply. Speaking ahead of WAN-IFRA’s World Printers Summit in Rotterdam, Peter Hasulyó, Founder & Editor of ForestryBrief, argues that publishers must pay closer attention to these factors to ensure long-term planning, and stability.

The Shifting Landscape of Timber Supply

For decades, publishers have primarily focused on adapting to market forces impacting demand. Now, the focus is shifting to the supply side. Forest owners across Europe are increasingly questioning the financial benefits of selling timber, as alternative revenue streams turn into more attractive. These include carbon credit schemes, solar lease offers, and incentives related to the EU Nature Restoration Law.

In Finland, timber trade volume decreased by 42 percent in the third quarter of 2025, not due to a lack of available timber, but because forest owners opted not to sell at prevailing prices. ForestryBrief highlights that when landowners can generate income from carbon credits, solar leases, and biodiversity payments without the complexities of harvesting, the incentive to sell to sawmills diminishes.

Competing Land Uses and Policy Collisions

Hasulyó identifies competing land uses as the most underestimated factor by the print industry. While publishers are aware of regulations like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the impact of climate change, the broader shift in land use priorities is often overlooked.

Several EU policies are creating conflicting demands on land use:

• The EU Biodiversity Strategy aims to protect 30 percent of land.
• The Nature Restoration Law promotes rewilding efforts.
• The Renewable Energy Directive subsidizes wood burning for energy.
• LULUCF regulations prioritize increased carbon sinks.
• The Forest Strategy encourages “close-to-nature” forestry with longer rotation periods.

These policies, while individually sensible, collectively create a complex situation where maximizing carbon storage, renewable energy production, material substitution, and biodiversity are often at odds. This is leading to higher softwood fiber prices in Europe compared to North America.

Structural Shifts, Not Cyclical Disruptions

The current situation is not a temporary supply chain issue, but a fundamental structural shift. Three key changes are converging:

1. Loss of Russian Timber: The EU ban on Russian timber imports has removed a significant supply buffer.
2. Mill Closures: Mills capable of absorbing price increases are disappearing. Several mills closed in 2025, including UPM Ettringen (Germany) and Kaukas (Finland), Sappi’s downsizing of Kirkniemi, and the closure of White Birch’s Soucy facility. ForestryBrief estimates over a million tonnes of European paper capacity vanished in twelve months.
3. Forest Owner Alternatives: Forest owners now have multiple options beyond selling to timber buyers, including carbon credit aggregators, solar developers, and conservation schemes.

Many in the industry are misinterpreting price volatility as a short-term disruption, anticipating a return to “normal” with economic recovery or energy price stabilization. However, European graphic paper demand fell another 10 percent in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a continued structural decline accelerated by digitalization. Mills are closing not due to temporary conditions, but because demand is not rebounding.

The Need for Proactive Supply Chain Resilience

Publishers who understand these shifts are diversifying suppliers, securing longer-term contracts, and building relationships beyond traditional channels. Those who wait for a return to “normal” may find that “normal” no longer exists. The industry needs to shift its focus from managing demand decline to preparing for a scenario where timber availability, not demand, becomes the primary constraint.

The most uncomfortable reality, according to Hasulyó, is that the carbon accounting within the forestry and paper industry is often overly optimistic. The industry’s narrative of a closed-loop system – trees grow, are harvested, paper is recycled, and new trees grow – is being challenged by scientific data indicating that European forests are absorbing less carbon than they did a decade ago.

Key Takeaways

• The print industry faces a new challenge: shifts in forest economics and fiber supply.
• Competing land uses and EU policies are creating conflicting demands on forest resources.
• The loss of Russian timber, mill closures, and alternative revenue streams for forest owners are contributing to supply constraints.
• Publishers need to proactively build supply chain resilience by diversifying suppliers and securing long-term contracts.
• The industry must address the complexities of carbon accounting and sustainability claims.