Iran Protests and Rising Tensions as US Military Presence Grows

As the new semester begins at Iranian universities, student protests are resurging across the country, signaling continued unrest against the Islamic Republic. These demonstrations coincide with a significant increase in the US military presence in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential escalation.

Student Protests Reflect Deep-Seated Discontent

Students at universities in Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan have been actively protesting for the third consecutive day since schools reopened on February 21st, 2026.¹ Demonstrations initially began as memorial services for those killed during January’s protests, but have evolved into broader expressions of anti-government sentiment. Many protesters are chanting slogans such as “Death to Khamenei” and “Woman, Life, Freedom/Iranian Republic,” directly targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and calling for regime change.¹

A growing number of students are similarly expressing support for a return to the monarchy, specifically calling for the return of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran.¹ Demonstrations at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran included slogans advocating for Pahlavi’s leadership.³

Clashes and Crackdowns

The protests have not been without clashes. At Sharif University, marchers condemned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “murderous leader.”³ Reports indicate scuffles between protesters and the Basij, a paramilitary group within the Revolutionary Guards, at Iran’s top engineering university.¹ Basij members are reportedly monitoring campus access and recording student attendance.¹

In the western town of Abdanan, protests erupted following the arrest of an activist teacher, with demonstrators chanting “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the dictator.”³

US Military Buildup and Fears of War

These protests are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions and a significant US military buildup. The United States has assembled the largest force of aircraft and warships in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.¹

Iran has warned the United States that any attack would be met with a “harsh response.”¹ Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are scheduled for February 26th in Geneva, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program. The US is demanding Iran halt its nuclear enrichment capabilities, while Iran maintains its program is for civilian purposes.

Outlook and Potential Scenarios

Analysts express skepticism that military escalation will lead to a secular democracy in Iran. Some suggest that without a viable political alternative to the current regime, a deal with the existing government remains the most realistic outcome.¹ Other potential outcomes include the emergence of an authoritarian military government or, in a worst-case scenario, a complete collapse of the country and a wider regional war.¹

The ongoing protests demonstrate the deep-seated discontent within Iranian society and the fragility of the current regime. The situation remains volatile, with the potential for further escalation both domestically and internationally.