Paolo Mereghetti’s Oscar Predictions: A Deep Dive into the 2026 Awards

As the anticipation builds for the 2026 Academy Awards, Italian film critic Paolo Mereghetti has offered his predictions, sparking debate and discussion within the film community. Mereghetti, a prominent voice in Italian cinema known for his work with Corriere della Sera and his influential film guide Il Mereghetti, has shared his insights on the potential winners across key categories. This article delves into Mereghetti’s picks, examining the films and performances he favors and the reasoning behind his choices.

Best Picture

Mereghetti confidently predicts Sentimental Value as the frontrunner for Best Picture, praising its emotional depth, authenticity, and ability to resonate with audiences. Still, he acknowledges the potential for Hamnet, a Shakespearean drama, to secure the win, citing its appeal to a cultured and adult audience. He suggests a Hamnet victory wouldn’t be a scandal, but rather a reflection of Hollywood’s tendency to reward sophisticated filmmaking.

Best Director

The race for Best Director, according to Mereghetti, is primarily between Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another and Joachim Trier. He highlights their exceptional staging, direction of actors, and narrative sensibilities, setting them apart from other contenders. While personally leaning towards Anderson’s balance in One Battle After Another, Mereghetti anticipates Ryan Coogler and his team’s The Sinners potentially taking the prize, attributing this to strategic marketing and identity politics.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, for his role in Marty Supreme, is widely considered the favorite to win Best Actor. Mereghetti agrees, despite Chalamet’s recent controversial comments regarding opera and ballet. However, Mereghetti expresses a preference for Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance in One Battle After Another, questioning whether the Academy voters will prioritize merit over other considerations.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, for her portrayal of Agnes in Hamnet, is predicted to win Best Actress. Mereghetti notes her performance has generated buzz, and the “Shakespeare factor” is likely to sway voters. He acknowledges the talent of Renate Reinsve but believes Buckley is the clear frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actress

Mereghetti favors Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, for her subtle and emotionally resonant performance as the sister who studies history in Sentimental Value. However, he predicts Wunmi Mosaku, for her role as the cook in The Sinners, will ultimately win, citing a trend of Black actresses gaining an advantage in voting.

Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn’s performance as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another is Mereghetti’s top pick for Best Supporting Actor, describing the character as “stupid, aggressive, naive, vindictive and super-narcissus.” He acknowledges Delroy Lindo’s performance in The Sinners as a potential contender, but believes Penn’s portrayal is superior.

Best International Film

Excluding Sirat, which Mereghetti deems hypocritical, he believes several films have strong chances of winning Best International Film. While he would personally root for Sentimental Value (representing Norway), he anticipates Jafar Panahi’s A Simple Accident (representing France) winning, attributing this to political factors and a potential backlash against Trump’s policies.

Paolo Mereghetti’s predictions offer a fascinating glimpse into the complexities of awards season, highlighting the interplay between artistic merit, political considerations, and marketing strategies. As the Academy Awards approach, his insights provide valuable context for understanding the potential outcomes and the forces shaping the celebration of cinematic achievement.